Early holiday stockpiling will help reliance on imports

US imports are forecast to decline through early 2026, with December imports expected to drop to 1.75 million twenty-foot equivalent units, the lowest since March 2023, according to the Global Port Tracker from NRF and Hackett Associates. Retailers significantly increased imports earlier in the year to prepare for the holiday season and to preempt potential tariff impacts, and January, February and March are also projected to see year-over-year decreases. "Store shelves are well stocked and the effect on prices has been minimized, largely thanks to retailers taking steps like frontloading imports during times of low or delayed tariff increases or absorbing the costs themselves," said Jonathan Gold, NRF's vice president for supply chain and customs policy.