StubHub, the world's largest event marketplace, today introduced the StubHub Fan Optimism Index, a tool that uncovers which sports fans are the most optimistic by looking at ticket trends and Vegas projections. Applied to NFL fans in the wake of the draft, Cleveland Brown fans were found to have the highest hopes ahead of the season.
StubHub's first Fan Optimism Index is a measurement tool that compares the difference between the number of wins that fans are expecting, based on their ticket purchases, against the Las Vegas projections for the upcoming season. Vegas over/unders are strongly correlated with justifiable results, while fan buying behavior is seemingly biased. By calculating the difference between these data sets, StubHub is able to determine what fans bases are the most optimistic.
"There are seemingly endless amounts of stats analyzing team and player projections, but StubHub wanted to create a formula to tap into fan optimism - something that has been difficult to put numbers against until now," said Akshay Khanna, General Manager of NFL at StubHub. "What we found proves fans' hopes for their team's season are not impacted by hard stats of any sort. After all, none of the teams with the 'most optimistic' fan bases made the playoffs last year."
"There is a unique challenge in devising a formula to show something as immeasurable as fan expectation," said Ben Alamar, former ESPN analyst and current Head of Business Analytics at StubHub. "What we did to measure this emotion was relate fans' buying behavior to their belief in how many wins they expect from their team. We compared these against the Vegas projections - the higher the index score, the higher the optimism."
According to the Fan Optimism Index, Cleveland Brown fans are the most optimistic in the NFL. Even after a 16-year playoff drought, the Browns have made moves in the offseason that have fans feeling hopeful for the upcoming season.
According to StubHub's Fan Optimism Index, the top ten NFL teams with the most optimistic fans are:
Cleveland Browns Washington Redskins Miami Dolphins New York Jets Arizona Cardinals Cincinnati Bengals Buffalo Bills New York Giants Oakland Raiders Tampa Bay Buccaneers